Raw 30-day realized vol is 32.9%, inflated 1.40× by the last earnings gap. The ex-earnings figure above is the fair comparison for contracts expiring before the next report.
| Profile | Delta band | Expiry | DTE | Strike | Δ | Credit | Collateral | ARoC | VAY | POP | Unassigned | IV/RV | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| conservative | 0.05–0.15 | 2026-09-18 | 26 | 285 | -0.12 | 1.36 | $28,364 | 7% | 0.24 | 88% | 87% | 1.17× | sell |
| moderate | 0.15–0.25 | 2026-09-18 | 26 | 295 | -0.23 | 2.90 | $29,210 | 14% | 0.54 | 80% | 75% | 1.11× | sell |
| aggressive | 0.25–0.40 | 2026-09-04 | 12 | 305 | -0.36 | 3.59 | $30,141 | 36% | 1.43 | 71% | 62% | 1.08× | sell |
Read it as a ladder: a higher delta pays a larger credit precisely because it is likelier to be assigned. The profiles differ in what they accept, not in how much edge they find.
| Expiry | DTE | ATM IV | Ern | Strike | Δ | Credit | ARoC | VAY | Unassigned | IV/RV | Γ risk | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-04 | 12 | 26% | 300 | -0.24 | 2.15 | 22% | 0.84 | 74% | 1.11× | 0.066 | ||
| 09-11 | 19 | 26% | 295 | -0.20 | 2.11 | 14% | 0.52 | 79% | 1.12× | 0.046 | ||
| 09-18 | 26 | 25% | 295 | -0.23 | 2.90 | 14% | 0.54 | 75% | 1.11× | 0.043 | ||
| 09-25 | 33 | 25% | 295 | -0.24 | 3.61 | 14% | 0.53 | 73% | 1.10× | 0.041 | ||
| 10-02 | 40 | 25% | 290 | -0.20 | 3.19 | 10% | 0.39 | 77% | 1.12× | 0.033 | ||
| 10-16 | 54 | 25% | 290 | -0.23 | 4.34 | 10% | 0.39 | 74% | 1.11× | 0.030 | ||
| 11-20 | 89 | 28% | ⚠ | no qualifying strike | ||||||||
Annualized return is not neutral across the term: at constant delta a short-dated contract annualizes far higher simply because a small credit over a few days extrapolates hugely. Γ risk — the delta change per 1% move — shows what the short end costs you.
02:31 EDT · weekend
Market is closed. Quotes are last week's close.
2 consecutive down closes (-2.4%). Reported as context only: streak-based timing showed no measurable effect on the seller's edge (t = 0.02, measured over 33 years of index data).
Freshly scanned. Generated 2026-08-23 06:31 UTC. JSON