| Profile | Delta band | Expiry | DTE | Strike | Δ | Credit | Collateral | ARoC | VAY | POP | Unassigned | IV/RV | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| conservative | 0.05–0.15 | — no qualifying contract — | no trade | ||||||||||
| moderate | 0.15–0.25 | 2026-10-30 ⚠ | 7 | 150 | -0.16 | 1.95 | $14,805 | 69% | 0.73 | 83% | 81% | 1.31× | sell |
| aggressive | 0.25–0.40 | 2026-10-30 ⚠ | 7 | 160 | -0.31 | 4.55 | $15,545 | 153% | 1.65 | 72% | 65% | 1.30× | sell |
Read it as a ladder: a higher delta pays a larger credit precisely because it is likelier to be assigned. The profiles differ in what they accept, not in how much edge they find.
| Expiry | DTE | ATM IV | Ern | Strike | Δ | Credit | ARoC | VAY | Unassigned | IV/RV | Γ risk | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 | 7 | 92% | ⚠ | 150 | -0.16 | 1.95 | 69% | 0.73 | 81% | 1.31× | 0.019 | |
| 11-06 | 14 | 81% | ⚠ | no qualifying strike | ||||||||
| 11-13 | 21 | 75% | ⚠ | 150 | -0.23 | 4.39 | 52% | 0.68 | 72% | 1.08× | 0.016 | |
| 11-20 | 28 | 73% | ⚠ | 140 | -0.15 | 2.99 | 28% | 0.38 | 80% | 1.04× | 0.011 | |
| 11-27 | 35 | 67% | ⚠ | no qualifying strike | ||||||||
| 12-18 | 56 | 66% | ⚠ | 140 | -0.19 | 5.47 | 27% | 0.39 | 72% | 0.96× | 0.010 | |
| 01-15 | 84 | 64% | ⚠ | 140 | -0.22 | 7.80 | 26% | 0.39 | 68% | 0.93× | 0.009 | |
Annualized return is not neutral across the term: at constant delta a short-dated contract annualizes far higher simply because a small credit over a few days extrapolates hugely. Γ risk — the delta change per 1% move — shows what the short end costs you.
20:27 EDT · after hours
Market is closed. Quotes are the closing marks.
2 consecutive up closes (+5.1%). Reported as context only: streak-based timing showed no measurable effect on the seller's edge (t = 0.02, measured over 33 years of index data).
Freshly scanned. Generated 2026-10-23 00:27 UTC. JSON