| Profile | Delta band | Expiry | DTE | Strike | Δ | Credit | Collateral | ARoC | VAY | POP | Unassigned | IV/RV | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| conservative | 0.05–0.15 | — no qualifying contract — | no trade | ||||||||||
| moderate | 0.15–0.25 | 2026-10-30 ⚠ | 7 | 130 | -0.16 | 1.51 | $12,849 | 61% | 0.70 | 84% | 81% | 1.09× | sell |
| aggressive | 0.25–0.40 | 2026-10-30 ⚠ | 7 | 140 | -0.34 | 4.06 | $13,594 | 156% | 1.85 | 71% | 62% | 1.05× | sell |
Read it as a ladder: a higher delta pays a larger credit precisely because it is likelier to be assigned. The profiles differ in what they accept, not in how much edge they find.
| Expiry | DTE | ATM IV | Ern | Strike | Δ | Credit | ARoC | VAY | Unassigned | IV/RV | Γ risk | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 | 7 | 84% | ⚠ | 130 | -0.16 | 1.51 | 61% | 0.70 | 81% | 1.09× | 0.020 | |
| 11-06 | 14 | 77% | ⚠ | no qualifying strike | ||||||||
| 11-13 | 21 | 75% | ⚠ | 125 | -0.18 | 2.89 | 41% | 0.52 | 77% | 0.98× | 0.014 | |
| 11-20 | 28 | 74% | ⚠ | 120 | -0.15 | 2.82 | 31% | 0.40 | 79% | 0.98× | 0.011 | |
| 11-27 | 35 | 71% | ⚠ | 125 | -0.21 | 4.41 | 38% | 0.52 | 72% | 0.92× | 0.013 | |
| 12-18 | 56 | 72% | ⚠ | 120 | -0.20 | 5.34 | 30% | 0.41 | 71% | 0.91× | 0.010 | |
| 01-15 | 84 | 70% | ⚠ | 115 | -0.19 | 6.16 | 25% | 0.34 | 70% | 0.90× | 0.008 | |
Annualized return is not neutral across the term: at constant delta a short-dated contract annualizes far higher simply because a small credit over a few days extrapolates hugely. Γ risk — the delta change per 1% move — shows what the short end costs you.
20:24 EDT · after hours
Market is closed. Quotes are the closing marks.
2 consecutive up closes (+12.8%). Reported as context only: streak-based timing showed no measurable effect on the seller's edge (t = 0.02, measured over 33 years of index data).
Freshly scanned. Generated 2026-10-23 00:24 UTC. JSON