| Profile | Delta band | Expiry | DTE | Strike | Δ | Credit | Collateral | ARoC | VAY | POP | Unassigned | IV/RV | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| conservative | 0.05–0.15 | — no qualifying contract — | no trade | ||||||||||
| moderate | 0.15–0.25 | 2026-09-04 ⚠ | 12 | 200 | -0.20 | 2.31 | $19,769 | 35% | 0.70 | 81% | 77% | 1.34× | sell |
| aggressive | 0.25–0.40 | 2026-09-04 ⚠ | 12 | 205 | -0.28 | 3.59 | $20,141 | 54% | 1.09 | 75% | 68% | 1.32× | sell |
Read it as a ladder: a higher delta pays a larger credit precisely because it is likelier to be assigned. The profiles differ in what they accept, not in how much edge they find.
| Expiry | DTE | ATM IV | Ern | Strike | Δ | Credit | ARoC | VAY | Unassigned | IV/RV | Γ risk | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-04 | 12 | 50% | ⚠ | 200 | -0.20 | 2.31 | 35% | 0.70 | 77% | 1.34× | 0.031 | |
| 09-11 | 19 | 44% | ⚠ | 200 | -0.22 | 3.02 | 29% | 0.65 | 74% | 1.20× | 0.029 | |
| 09-18 | 26 | 42% | ⚠ | 200 | -0.24 | 3.79 | 27% | 0.63 | 72% | 1.15× | 0.027 | |
| 09-25 | 33 | 40% | ⚠ | 190 | -0.15 | 2.34 | 14% | 0.32 | 82% | 1.15× | 0.018 | |
| 10-02 | 40 | 40% | ⚠ | 195 | -0.21 | 3.77 | 18% | 0.44 | 75% | 1.10× | 0.021 | |
| 10-16 | 54 | 39% | ⚠ | 185 | -0.15 | 2.91 | 11% | 0.26 | 81% | 1.12× | 0.014 | |
| 11-20 | 89 | 41% | ⚠ | 180 | -0.16 | 4.38 | 10% | 0.24 | 78% | 1.14× | 0.012 |
Annualized return is not neutral across the term: at constant delta a short-dated contract annualizes far higher simply because a small credit over a few days extrapolates hugely. Γ risk — the delta change per 1% move — shows what the short end costs you.
02:36 EDT · weekend
Market is closed. Quotes are last week's close.
6 consecutive down closes (-4.7%). Reported as context only: streak-based timing showed no measurable effect on the seller's edge (t = 0.02, measured over 33 years of index data).
Freshly scanned. Generated 2026-08-23 06:36 UTC. JSON