| Profile | Delta band | Expiry | DTE | Strike | Δ | Credit | Collateral | ARoC | VAY | POP | Unassigned | IV/RV | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| conservative | 0.05–0.15 | — no qualifying contract — | no trade | ||||||||||
| moderate | 0.15–0.25 | — no qualifying contract — | no trade | ||||||||||
| aggressive | 0.25–0.40 | 2026-12-18 | 56 | 65 | -0.33 | 1.60 | $6,340 | 16% | 0.61 | 71% | 63% | 1.22× | sell |
Read it as a ladder: a higher delta pays a larger credit precisely because it is likelier to be assigned. The profiles differ in what they accept, not in how much edge they find.
| Expiry | DTE | ATM IV | Ern | Strike | Δ | Credit | ARoC | VAY | Unassigned | IV/RV | Γ risk | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 | 7 | 32% | no qualifying strike | |||||||||
| 11-06 | 14 | 33% | no qualifying strike | |||||||||
| 11-13 | 21 | 33% | no qualifying strike | |||||||||
| 11-20 | 28 | 31% | no qualifying strike | |||||||||
| 11-27 | 35 | 27% | no qualifying strike | |||||||||
| 12-18 | 56 | 31% | no qualifying strike | |||||||||
| 12-31 | 69 | 28% | no qualifying strike | |||||||||
| 01-15 | 84 | 28% | no qualifying strike | |||||||||
Annualized return is not neutral across the term: at constant delta a short-dated contract annualizes far higher simply because a small credit over a few days extrapolates hugely. Γ risk — the delta change per 1% move — shows what the short end costs you.
20:25 EDT · after hours
Market is closed. Quotes are the closing marks.
2 consecutive up closes (+0.5%). Reported as context only: streak-based timing showed no measurable effect on the seller's edge (t = 0.02, measured over 33 years of index data).
Freshly scanned. Generated 2026-10-23 00:25 UTC. JSON